Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Mid-Peninsula sales held steady, but the market did not move as one

By Brad Bell

Real estate, Mid-Peninsula - $1M+

The regional total looks calm. It is not the whole story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 742 homes sold across the Mid-Peninsula in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 1.6% from the same months of 2025. At the same time, Realtor.com reported mortgage rates topped 7% for the first time since January 2025. Those two things together explain what happened: the region stayed active, but it split. Some ZIP codes saw prices rise and bidding wars accelerate. Others saw prices fall and homes sit longer. The average hides both.

Every one of those regional figures moved less than 2% from a year ago. That kind of stillness at the top can make the market look uniform. It is not. Below the surface, individual ZIP codes moved in opposite directions, sometimes by double digits.

Rates above 7%: what that means here

Realtor.com reported rates topped 7% for the first time since January 2025. CNBC reported that a monthly payment on a median-priced home now takes roughly 33% of a median family's income, up from 26% in 2022. That gap matters on the Mid-Peninsula, where prices already start above $1 million in most pockets. Buyers who can absorb the rate are still competing hard. Those who cannot are stepping back, and that is showing up differently depending on the price point and the ZIP.

Where prices rose

The biggest price gains came from a few specific areas. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median sale price of $2,850,000 in ZIP 94040 (Mountain View), up 49.7% from the same period of 2025. That is a large swing on a small volume: only 44 homes sold there, down 35.3% from a year before. A shift in what sold, toward larger single-family homes, likely drove that number more than a broad price surge. Read it carefully before drawing conclusions about your own home.

San Carlos (94070) and Redwood City (94061) both showed real, broad-based gains. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put San Carlos at a median of $2,480,000, up 11.5%, with 97 homes sold and 54.6% selling above list. Redwood City's 94061 came in at $2,021,500, up 7.4%, with 61.1% of homes selling above list, a gain of 14.5 points from a year before. Both ZIPs also saw days on market fall: 4 days shorter in San Carlos, 7 days shorter in 94061.

Where prices fell

Not every ZIP moved up. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the median in 94404 (San Mateo, the Foster City side) fell 11.1% to $1,333,000. Days on market there rose 5 days to 28, and the share selling above list dipped slightly. In 94403 (San Mateo), the median fell 5.5% to $1,760,000, even as the sale-to-list ratio and the share selling above list both improved. That combination, prices down but competitive dynamics holding, can mean the mix of homes that sold shifted, not that demand collapsed.

Mountain View's 94043 also softened. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of $1,530,000 there, down 5.8%, with homes taking 19 days on average, 4 days longer than a year before. The share selling above list fell 8.5 points to 52.6%. Inventory in that ZIP rose 54.5%. More supply and softer demand is a combination that puts pricing pressure on sellers.

Speed: some pockets moved fast, some did not

The fastest ZIP was 94041 in Mountain View, where the Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median days on market at 10, down 3 days from a year before. ZIP 94402 in San Mateo came in at 12 days, and San Carlos at 13. At the other end, 94401 in San Mateo took a median of 29 days, 11 days shorter than a year ago but still the slowest in the group. The range from 10 days to 29 days across the same three-month period shows how differently individual pockets are behaving.

Competition: above-list sales held up in most ZIPs

Despite rates above 7%, most pockets still saw more than half of homes sell above list price. ZIP 94403 in San Mateo led at 68.8%, with a sale-to-list ratio of 108.2%. ZIP 94041 in Mountain View matched that 108.2% ratio. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed that 62.8% of homes in 94402 went under contract within two weeks of listing. That is not a market where buyers are walking away.

The exception was 94401 in San Mateo, where 33.3% sold above list and only 39.7% went under contract within two weeks. Those numbers are lower than the rest of the region. They are not a sign of collapse, but they do mean sellers in that ZIP are working harder for their price.

Inventory: Belmont stands out

Most ZIPs saw inventory fall or hold flat. Belmont (94002) was the clear exception. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted homes for sale there up 118.8% from a year before, and new listings up 67.4%. More supply did not stop sales: 59 homes sold, up 15.7%. But the median price dipped 2.2% and the share going under contract within two weeks fell 9 points. More choice for buyers, a little less urgency.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported active listings grew to 1.16 million homes for sale. That supply increase is showing up in pockets here too, though not evenly. Where supply rose sharply, like Belmont and 94043 in Mountain View, the data shows softer conditions. Where supply stayed tight, like 94402 in San Mateo at 1 month of supply, competition stayed strong.

The national picture, for context

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026, and 0.3% month over month in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. That national figure is well below what the stronger Mid-Peninsula ZIPs posted. Realtor.com also noted that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings nationally in September, the highest share since October 2022. That number is a national figure, not a local one. On the Mid-Peninsula, most ZIPs saw the opposite: sale-to-list ratios above 100% and more homes selling above list than a year ago.

One more thing worth saying: within a single ZIP code, one street can read differently from the whole. A corner lot, a school boundary line, or a block closer to Caltrain can shift the numbers. The ZIP data above is the right starting point. It is not the final word on your specific address.