Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

More listings are giving buyers room, but Core Silicon Valley is still moving

By Brad Bell

Real estate, Core Silicon Valley - $1M-$4M

The one fact that changes what you should do right now: supply jumped, but buyers kept buying. That means pricing has to work harder than it did a year ago.

These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026, across Campbell, Santa Clara, Cupertino, San Jose and Sunnyvale in the $1M-$4M range.

The market-wide picture

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 656 homes for sale across Core Silicon Valley in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 44.2% from the same period a year before. More sellers came to the table, and more listings sat long enough to be counted.

At the same time, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,000 pending sales, up 4.1% year over year. Buyers did not walk away. They had more to look at and still made decisions.

Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates topped 7% in September 2026, the first time since January 2025. That is real friction for buyers. It did not stop the market here, but it does mean sellers cannot price as if rates were 6%.

Nationally, Realtor.com also reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Core Silicon Valley is not the national market, but the direction is worth knowing.

Where prices moved

Not every ZIP moved the same way. Some held or gained. Others gave back ground. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked each one.

Cupertino (95014) stayed at the top at $2,860,000, though the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows that is down 11% from a year ago. Homes there still sold at 104.9% of list on average. The school pull from Monta Vista and Lynbrook holds, but there is more competition now, with inventory up 142.9%.

West San Jose (95129) sits just below Cupertino at $2,414,000. It feeds Lynbrook schools. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 71.7% of homes there sold above list, the highest share in this group. Median days on market: 13. That ZIP is still moving fast.

Los Gatos (95032) was the only ZIP where the sale-to-list ratio improved year over year, up 1.3 points to 101.2%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Median price rose 10.1% to $2,700,000. Inventory there actually fell 6.1%, the only ZIP in this group to shrink. Fewer homes, strong prices.

Campbell (95008) posted the biggest median price at $1,957,500, up 7% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Sales fell 18.4%, though. More inventory and fewer closings means buyers there have room to negotiate.

How fast homes are moving, ZIP by ZIP

Every ZIP took longer to sell than a year before, with one exception. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows 95128 (San Jose) was 1 day shorter. Sunnyvale (94086) added 8 days, the biggest jump in the group.

Sunnyvale's draw is not price. It is proximity. Apple's campus in Cupertino and Nvidia's in Santa Clara are both a short drive on 237 or Lawrence Expressway. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows homes there still sold at 103.4% of list, even with the slower pace.

The share of homes going above list

Most ZIPs saw that share fall. A few held or gained. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked both.

West San Jose (95129) and Los Gatos (95032) were the only two ZIPs where the share of homes sold above list actually grew from a year ago, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Every other ZIP in this group saw it fall.

The biggest drop was in 95126, down 12.4 points to 30.7%. That ZIP also saw the median price fall 14.2% to $1,098,000. More new listings came in there, up 56.6%, and buyers had more leverage.

What the rate environment means here

Realtor.com reported rates above 7% in September 2026. The Federal Housing Finance Agency put U.S. home prices up 2.6% year over year through July 2026. Those two things together tell you what buyers are working with: prices still rising nationally, and borrowing costs back at a level that adds real dollars to a monthly payment.

CNBC reported that in 2025, the monthly payment on a median-priced home was roughly 33% of a median family's income. In Core Silicon Valley, prices are well above the national median. That math lands harder here.

Even so, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,000 pending sales in this market for the three months ending August 31, 2026. Buyers are adjusting, not disappearing.

What this means if you own here

More inventory means your home is being compared to more options than it was a year ago. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows sale-to-list ratios slipping in most ZIPs. That is not a collapse. It is a signal to price precisely.

In ZIPs where schools are the main draw, like 95014 and 95129, buyers still compete. In ZIPs where the school picture is less clear or the price sits near the top of the range, homes are taking longer and landing closer to list.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP as a whole. A corner lot near a school boundary, or a block with better freeway access to 280 or 85, will not move the same way as the average.