Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

One part of the market got looser, while several others stayed tight

By Brad Bell

Real estate, East San Jose & North Valley - $800K+

Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates topped 7% in September 2026. That is the backdrop for everything below. Even so, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 470 homes sold across East San Jose and North Valley in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 11.7% from the same months in 2025, but homes were still moving. The story is not one market. It is several, and they are reading differently.

Supply is the number that splits this market

Months of supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home listed, at the current pace of sales. Below 2 months is seller's territory. Above 3 months, buyers have more room. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found a wide spread across these ZIP codes in the three months ending August 31, 2026.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator put 95121 at 1.5 months of supply. That is tight. Sellers there had less competition, and buyers had fewer choices. At the other end, 95116 sat at 3.3 months. That is not a crash, but it is a different conversation. Buyers in 95116 had more time and more options.

The tight end: 95121, 95148 and 95122

In 95121, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 41 homes sold and only 20 for sale. The average sale came in at 101.3% of list price. More than half of homes, 53.7%, sold above asking. Nearly 42.5% went under contract within two weeks of listing. Prices dipped 5.6% year over year, so it is not a runaway market. But the pace of competition held.

95148 was close behind at 1.6 months of supply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price there at $1,540,800, nearly flat year over year, down just 0.3%. The sale-to-list ratio was 101.8%. That said, homes took 10 days longer to sell than the same period in 2025, and the share that went under contract within two weeks fell 21.5 points. Tight supply, but buyers were taking a little more time.

95122 came in at 1.7 months. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 54.1% of homes sold above list, up 5.1 points from a year ago. The median sale price was $903,000, down 4.9% year over year. Homes sold 4 days faster than the same period in 2025. Supply held flat. This ZIP was competitive even as prices pulled back a little.

The middle: 95131 and 95133

Both of these North Valley ZIP codes landed at 2.2 months of supply. That is balanced, not clearly favoring either side.

95131 moved faster: 19 median days on market versus 28 in 95133. But 95133 had a higher share of homes selling above list, 54%, up 14 points from a year ago. In 95131, the sale-to-list ratio was 102.2%, up 0.7 points. Both ZIPs saw fewer sales than last year. Sellers in both still got over asking on average, but neither ZIP is running away.

The looser end: 95132, 95127, 95035 and 95116

These four ZIP codes ranged from 2.5 to 3.3 months of supply. That does not mean homes are sitting. In 95132, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 44.3% of homes going under contract within two weeks, and the sale-to-list ratio was 102.5%. But inventory nearly doubled year over year, up 95.2%. More choices for buyers tends to put pressure on price. The median in 95132 fell 10.4% year over year to $1,560,000.

In 95127, supply rose 1.1 months to 2.6 months. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 59 homes for sale, up 34.1% from a year ago. Even so, 52.2% of homes sold above list, up 10.6 points. The median sale price was $1,125,000, down 6.3%. Homes moved faster: 17 median days on market, 6 days shorter than last year. More supply, but buyers were still competing.

Milpitas, ZIP 95035, had the second-most homes for sale in the group: 94, double the count from a year ago. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put supply at 2.8 months, up 1.5 months year over year. The median sale price was $1,350,000, down 7.2%. Homes sold in 16 median days, 4 days faster than last year. Buyers had more to choose from, and prices reflected that.

95116 had the most supply: 3.3 months. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 33 homes sold, down 25% from a year ago. The median sale price was $935,000, down 3.4%. Only 21.2% of homes sold above list, down 19.7 points. One in three homes went under contract within two weeks, but that share fell 15.5 points from last year. This is where buyers have the most room to take their time.

What the wider picture says

Redfin reported that San Jose home prices rose 2.9% year over year in September 2026. That is a real gain, even with rates above 7%. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 360 homes for sale across all nine ZIP codes in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 36.4% from a year ago. More supply is the story for the region. But it arrived unevenly. Some ZIP codes felt it; others barely did.

Realtor.com reported that 22.8% of West region listings took a price reduction in September 2026. That is not a majority, but it is a real share. In the ZIP codes where supply grew the most, sellers who priced to last year's market were the ones adjusting.

One street can read differently from its ZIP code overall. If your home is near a ZIP code boundary, or in a pocket that tends to move faster or slower than the rest, the ZIP code number alone will not tell you the full picture. Send me your address and I can look at what actually sold near you.